Showing posts with label stocks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stocks. Show all posts

Friday, February 10, 2012

Annuities are Fun ... like Kernel Seasons on Popcorn except Different

Growing Annuity

“A growing annuity is a cash flow that grows at a constant rate for a specified period of time.”

Stuart Gabriel, a second-year MBA student, has just been offered a job at $80,000 a year. He anticipates his salary increasing by 9 percent a year until his retirement in 40 years. Given an interest rate of 20 percent, what is the present value of his lifetime salary?

Clear time value of money memory: 2nd CLR TVM
Compounding should remain at P/Y = 1 (third row second column), ENTER (first row second column), down arrow (first row fourth column), C/Y = 1.

First step: find out I and PMT

I = {(interest rate-growth rate)/(1+growth rate)}*100
= {(.20-.09)/(1+.09)}*100
=10.09

Press STO, 1 to store the number

PMT = Current Annual Salary/ (1+growth rate)
= (80,000/1.09)
=73,394.50

Press STO, 2 to store the number

Second Step: enter the following

N = 40, number of payment/cash flows in the growing annuity.
I = press RCL, 1 to recall the number we saved
PV = Unknown
PMT = RCL, 2 to recall the number
FV = 0
CPT PV = $711,731
Growing Perpetuity

“Assume that you are assessing a stock that paid $2 as dividends last year. Assume that you expect these dividends to grow 2 percent a year in perpetuity, and that your required rate of return for investing in this stock, given its risk, is 8 percent. With these inputs, you can value the stock using a perpetual growth model:

Expected dividends next year / (Required return - Expected growth rate) = $2 (1.02) / (.08 - .02) = $34.00”

“These cash flows are the essential building blocks for virtually every financial asset. Bonds, stocks, or real estate properties can ultimately be broken down into sets of cash flows. If you can discount these cash flows, you can value all of these assets.”

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Building a Small Business That Warren Buffett Would Love,available at Amazon.comorBarnesandNoble.com.
The over-arching vision of Building a Small Business That Warren Buffett Would Loveis to create
One Million Jobs.
Like us on Facebook to find out how you can support this mission!


Sunday, January 29, 2012

Reach Financial Independence, Lose Weight, Find the Ideal Job

Success Principles

  • Make an I want list: 30 things you want to be, 30 things you want to do and 30 things you want to have.
  • What’s the potential opportunity in this … I believe the world is plotting to do me good today, I can’t wait to see what it is.
  • Reread your goals 3x a day – in the morning and before going to bed.
  • A goals book = a binder with pictures of your goals.
  • Make a list of 101 goals.

Chunk it down using mind mapping:

  • Center circle = your goal
  • Outside circles = major categories of tasks you’ll need to accomplish to achieve the greater goal.
  • Spokes – draw spokes radiating outward from each mini-circle and label each one. Write every single step you’ll need to take. Break down each one of the more detailed task spokes with action items to help you create a master to-do list. See The Mind Map Book by Tony Buzan and Barry Buzan.
  • Make a to-do list: convert all of the to-do items into daily action items by listing each one on your daily to-do lists and committing to a completion date for each one.

The One Minute Millionaire – Robert Allen

Nine guidelines for creating effective affirmations

  1. Start with the words I am
  2. Use the present tense – describe what you want as if you already have it.
  3. State it in the positive – affirm what you want, not what you don’t want. “I am enjoying the thrill of flying.”
  4. Keep it brief – think of it as an advertising jingle.
  5. Make it specific – I am enjoying driving my 1965, white Ford Mustang.
  6. Include an action word ending with –ing. “I am confidently expressing myself openly and honestly.”
  7. Include at least one dynamic emotion or feeling word. Include the emotional state you would be feeling if you had already achieved the goal. “enjoying, joyfully, happily, celebrating, proudly, peacefully, enthusiastic, lovingly, triumphant.”
  8. Make affirmations for yourself, not others.
  9. Add or something better – sometimes there is something or someone better that is available for us.

How to create affirmations

Visualize what you would like to create. See things just as you would like them to be. Place yourself inside the picture and see things through your eyes. If you want a car, see the world inside the car as you are driving it.

  • Hear the sounds you would be hearing if you had already achieved your vision.
  • Feel the feeling you want to feel when you have created what you want.
  • Describe what you are experiencing in a brief statement, including what you are feeling.
  • If necessary, edit your affirmation to make it meet all of the above guidelines.

Affirmations and Visualization

Review your affirmations one to three times a day – morning, middle, end of day.

  1. Read out loud if appropriate
  2. Close your eyes and visualize yourself as the affirmation describes. See the scene from inside yourself as if you were living it.
  3. Hear any sounds you might hear, include people congratulating you and telling you how pleased they are with your success.
  4. Feel the feelings that you will feel when you achieve that success.
  5. Say your affirmation again and then repeat this process with the next affirmation.
  6. Record your affirmations and listen to them.
  7. Repeat your affirmations in the first person (“I am”), second person, and third person.
  8. Use this question in both your personal and business life:
  9. On a scale of 1 to 10, how would you rate the quality of our relationship (service/product) during the last week (2 weeks/month/etc.)
  10. Anything less gets the follow-up: what would make it a 10?

Keep score of what you want more of – decide where you need to keep score in order to manifest your vision and achieve your goals. Keep score in all areas of your life: financial, professional, school, recreation and fun time, health and fitness, family and other relationships, personal projects, and contributions to others. Post your scores where you can see them.

John Kremer’s 1001 Ways to Market Your Book

Five specific things that move you toward your goal – if you would go to a large tree every day and take five swings with an axe, eventually, no matter how large the tree, it would have to come down.

Begin inventorying and keeping track of your major successes – start by dividing your life into three equal time periods (for example, for a 45 year old, from birth to 15, 15 to 30 and 30 to 45). Then list three successes you’ve had for each time period. The second step is to list 100 or more of your life successes.

Create a victory log – keep a written record of your successes. By recalling and writing down your successes each day, you log them into your long-term memory, which enhances your self-esteem and builds your self-confidence. When you are about to take a big step, for example, negotiating a multi-million dollar deal, read the victory log to build self-confidence.

Display your success symbols – a valuable technique that will help build your self-esteem and motivate you to greater future success is the practice of surrounding yourself with awards, pictures and other objects that remind you of your successes. Make a special place, a shelf or a victory wall that you will see every day.

The Mirror Exercise – do this for a minimum of three months. Just before going to bed, stand in front of a mirror and appreciate yourself for all that you have accomplished during the day. Start with a few seconds of looking directly into the eyes of the person in the mirror. Then address yourself by name and begin appreciating yourself out loud for the following things:

  • Any achievements during the day.
  • Any personal disciplines you kept – dietary, exercise, reading, etc.
  • Any temptations that you did not give in to – desserts, staying up to late, TV
  • Maintain eye contact throughout, finish with “I love you.”

The Daily Success Focus Journal

At the end of the day, identify five things that you accomplished during the day (or do this weekly.) Any area – work, school, family, etc.

Write it out in a table like so: Success, Reason (why it was so important), Further Progress, Next Action

Example: Conducted a great staff meeting, it created the team spirit we were lacking, plan on off-site staff development day, form a committee with Ann and Bob.

Visualize your ideal next day the night before.

Create a stop doing list, make the things on your list “policies.”

Stop wasting time and start programming.

Example – I don’t lend money, I am not a bank.

Mastermind Meetings – Share what’s new, negotiate for time, individual members speak while the group listens and brainstorms, make a commitment to stretch, end with a moment of gratitude, be accountable,

The questions:

  1. If we were meeting three years from today, what has to have happened during that 3 year period for you to feel happy about your progress?
  2. What are the biggest dangers you’ll have to face and deal with in order to achieve that progress?
  3. What are the biggest opportunities that you would need to focus on and capture to achieve those things?
  4. What strengths will you need to reinforce and maximize, and what skills and resources will you need to develop that you don’t currently have in order to capture those opportunities?
  5. Take yourself through these questions.

The releasing questions – what am I feeling right now, could I welcome and allow it, could I let it go, would I let it go, when.

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Building a Small Business That Warren Buffett Would Love, available at Amazon.comorBarnesandNoble.com.

The over-arching vision of Building a Small Business That Warren Buffett Would Loveis to create
One Million Jobs.
Like us on Facebook to find out how you can support this mission!

Monday, January 23, 2012

A New Disney Destination: To Infinity and Beyond!

Giant Mouse-Ears, Big Dividend

At the End of November 2011 the Walt Disney Company increased its dividend from $.40 to $.60, a 50% boost bringing its yield close to 1.7%. This fact coupled with the company’s stock buyback plan of 400 million shares,[i] indicates that a “great big, beautiful tomorrow”[ii] exists for this company.

Typically, a dividend increase is a signal of confidence for the business and its long-term prospects since a dividend after-all is a commitment to put money in investors’ pockets and should not soon be cut. In the case of the company that Mickey built, this increase represents a three-fold hike over historic bumps: in the last eight years, the Disney dividend has been raised six times [iii] and never by more than 15%. This current dividend liftoff is bigger than Spaceship Earth.

A Fabulous Log Flume of a Company

The Walt Disney Company is a not-so small world of cable properties, theme parks, hotels, cruise ships, movies and merchandise. The cable properties, the hugest portion of this animal safari, represent 67% of operating income and include the ABC, ESPN, and Disney Channel networks. Highlighting its importance even further are the huge transmission fees that the cable segment generates from cable and satellite providers for ABC. Disney is not so much a theme park and animated feature company nowadays as it is a cable network which recently secured a contract with the NFL to broadcast its games through 2021. Can I get a“Yo-Ho” anyone?



Building a Small Business That Warren Buffett Would Love,
available at Amazon.com orBarnesandNoble.com.


Available at Amazon.com and BarnesandNoble.com!





[i] Walt Disney Company May 10th, SEC 10-Q

[ii] Richard M. Sherman and Robert B. Sherman, “There’s a Great Big Beautiful Tomorrow,” .1964

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Real Estate Versus Stock Investing

Building a Small Business That Warren Buffett Would Love,available at Amazon.comorBarnesandNoble.com.

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Ten Advantages of Real Estate

Cash Flow

The chief thing here is that the property is self-maintaining as far as expenses go. It is a business model in itself – the income minus the outflow equals the cash flow. The expenses should first all be covered for the investment to make sense and secondly the property should generate a cash flow in order to add icing to the cake of property appreciation. When comparing real estate investing to stock investing, it is important to not only compare the national average real estate appreciation rate of 6% to the historic average stock market return of 10%, you must also factor in the cash flow received.

In addition, this is passive cash flow. Although you might have to handle tenant issues or arrange for repairs or do them yourself, your physical presence is not required 100% of the time in order to generate the income. In the stock universe you would have to generate this via dividends. Although this is not impossible to do, you must find healthy yields to match the cash flow return you would receive on a piece of real estate and monitor the stock for dividend cuts or “going out of business” drops.

Once your passive cash flow is equal to or greater than your expenses, you are financially free.

Control

In the stock universe you do not have much control over how the companies you own are managed – unless of course you are Warren Buffet who sits on the board of directors of some of the companies he owns. Sure you get a proxy vote but unless you own a large percentage of shares, this won’t amount to much. If you own Coke stock you could buy up all the Coke at your local super market in an attempt to ratchet up sales but I think we both would have to agree this would be futile.

In the real estate universe you can manipulate rents, you can screen tenants, you can landscape, you can throw a new coat of paint on the walls, you can physically drive up to the property. If rents drop in the area by $25 you can adjust accordingly to keep your vacancy rate low. If they go up, you can raise rents. In real estate you have much more control over the investment. In stocks, you can monitor and maintain control over the buy and sell decisions.

This also comments on the passivity of the investment. Without a property manager, the more control you exude over your piece of real estate and the less passive it becomes. Keep that in mind as well.

Appreciation

Real estate on average appreciates 6% nationally. Although this has not been the case recently, I use the long-term average for comparative purposes on stocks and property. Stocks appreciate by an average, long-term rate of 10% while real estate appreciates at 6%. Also, the beauty of real estate is that a tenant is paying down the mortgage and essentially buying the asset for you over time. The problem with the simple 10% versus 6% rate comparison, from a property investor’s point of view, is that it does not take leverage into consideration.

Leverage

If you put $20,000 down on a $100,000 property and it generates $3,000 a year in cash flow, what is your rate of return? It is $3,000/$20,000 or 15%.

If the property increases in value by 6%, how much have you gained?

Answer: $100,000 x 6% = $6,000.

How much of a rate of return is this over your initial investment?

Answer: $6,000/$20,000 = 30%

When you add this to your $3000 of cash flow, your true rate of return is $9,000/$20,000 or 45%.

If you took that money instead and invested it in a stock mutual fund, how much rate of return would you expect? Answer: 10% over the long haul.

Stocks 10%

Real Estate 45%

‘Nuff said.

Depreciation

This is one of those lovely phantom tax deductions you get to claim at the end of the year that will turn your rental money into 0% tax money – your earned income is taxed potentially at 50%, your portfolio income or dividend income is taxed at 15 – 20%, your passive or rental income can be taxed at 0%. This is how:

You get to depreciate residential real estate property over 27.5 years and commercial over 39 years. If you cash flow $20,000 out of your property but have depreciation of $25,000, you have a tax loss of $5,000 and no tax is paid on income. Sure, one could argue that the property is actually depreciating and generating a real repair cost, but repair costs are already factored in and come out of the cash flow.

The Depreciation Equation:

(Total Asset Value – Land Value) / Depreciable Years = Annual Depreciation

Refinance

If you increase the property value you can refinance it and withdraw the money tax free. Say you finance a $200,000 property and through a property improvement plan (you lower the vacancy rate, you increase rents based on a rent premium for ground floor apartments) the property is now worth $250,000. You can now refinance the property at $250,000 pay off the initial $200,000 and withdraw the $50,000 tax free.

Asset Protection

Two things here: insurance and incorporation. If a stock drops 50% in value, what protection do you have? Perhaps a stop loss order or a put option? If your investment property burns down, what protection do you have?

Answer: insurance

Also, the second form of protection is incorporation. Traditionally an LLC has been the most advantageous for property investors. By placing your property in this bucket you shield your personal assets should any one come after you with legal action.

1031 Exchanges

You can roll over property gains tax free by buying bigger properties using a 1031 exchange. The capital gains do not go away, they are still there. But, by using a 1031 exchange, you can continue to roll those gains into bigger and hopefully better properties tax free. If you finish and choose not to hold the last property or roll it, you will have tax consequences.

Hedge Against Inflation

Because real estate is a tangible asset, it will generally rise at the rate of inflation or higher. Historically inflation has been 4.1%. That means real estate, with its average, historical appreciation of 6% has beaten inflation by nearly 2%.

A Physical Asset

You can actually walk up to a piece of property. You can inspect it, you can visit the tenants, you can see cracks forming in the walls. With a stock, in a lot of respects, it exists out in the ether. Sure if you own Coke you can drink a Coke and you can go visit Coke headquarters in Atlanta, but the investment truly lives throughout the business model which you do not directly manage. A property on the other hand, can be managed directly by you.

To sum up, there are many advantages to real estate investing over stock investing and many analysts neglect to make a fair comparison between the two. Many merely compare the 6% appreciation in real estate to the 10% return in stocks. What they are chiefly leaving out are the benefits of passive cash flow, leverage and depreciation. Once these three factors alone are included in the mix, it is clear that real estate has some unique advantages over stocks. I do not wholeheartedly endorse real estate investing alone. I believe one must have a diversified investment strategy across different asset classes. It is not enough to have a bucket of mutual funds and claim diversification. It is important to have assets in stocks, real estate and business.


Building a Small Business That Warren Buffett Would Love,available at Amazon.comorBarnesandNoble.com.
The over-arching vision of Building a Small Business That Warren Buffett Would Loveis to create
One Million Jobs.
Like us on Facebook to find out how you can support this mission!

Friday, January 7, 2011

An Invaluable Dividend Screen

Below is an excerpt from my upcoming third book My Happy Assets - Taking the Last Steps to Financial Independence.

If you like what you read, check out my first book, My Happy Assets at http://www.myhappyassets.com/ and the complete second book,Small Business Coffee Hour, Three Essential Ingredients for a Successful Business athttp://www.smallbizcoffee.com/. Happy Reading!

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If you are interested in generating cash flow from dividends, the screen below will help you identify stocks that are fertile with yield and ripe for investment.


Measure

Formula

What to Look For

Dividend Yield

Dividend per share divided by stock price

Yield at least equal to that of the S&P 500 and not out of line with that of the S&P industry yield.

Use 8-20%(anything above is bad news)

Price to earnings ratio

Stock Price Divided by per-share earnings

P/E that is not excessive compared with company's historical P/E and with S&P industry P/E

Cash flow per share

Net income plus depreciation and amortization divided by number of shares outstanding

Should be at least three times dividend payment

Quick ratio

Current assets minus inventory divided by current liabilities

Should be at least 1.0

Payout ratio

Per-share dividends divided by per-share earnings

Should be higher than 50% but not exceed 100%

Dividend coverage ratio

Cash flow per share divided by dividends per share

Minimum should be 120%

Short-term debt coverage ratio

Operating income divided by short-term debt

Should be at least 2.0

Market Cap

This is the overall market capitalization of a company.

>= $1 billion. Traditionally, larger caps are steadier in their payouts.

ROE

Return on Equity

>= 10%

The Fundamental Grade

Stock Scouter

> = C

Institutional Ownership

What % of big funds own the company.

> = 30 %

Mean Recommendation

Buy, Hold or sell?

> = Hold from analysts

EPS Growth Next Year

How much will earnings grow?

> = 1

Thursday, October 7, 2010

The Rules for Selling Calls on Existing Stock Holdings

As presented by Hooper and Zalewski in their book Covered Calls and Leaps, here are the rules for selling calls on existing stock holdings.
  1. New calls may only be sold on up market days.
  2. If the market price of the stock is higher than your cost in the stock, both the called and uncalled return calculations should be based on the current market price of the stock. If the current market price of the stock is lower than you cost in the stock, all return calculations should be based on your cost in the stock.
  3. If you have no desire to keep the stock, your objective should be to sell a near month call that will provide a satisfactory uncalled and called return. If you can sell a near month call with a resulting uncalled and called return minimum of 2%, then do so.
  4. If you cannot satisfy rule 3 or you do not want to be called out of the stock holding, then use the TSS for income while being sure to adhere to the selling high rule.