Thursday, February 16, 2012

McDonald's, Coke and Campbell's Relative Valuation

Relative Valuation Comparing Three Consumer Monopoly Companies




McDonald's

Industry Average - Hotels & Restaurants

Coke

Industry Average - Hotels & Restaurants

Campbell's

Industry Average - Food Products

P/E (Trailing Twelve Months)

18.8%

27.4%

18.4%

16.8%

13.14%

10.36

P/E (5-Year Average)

19.5%

28.4%

17.8%

21.1%

16.18%

28.5

PEG Ratio

1.9%

1.7%

2.9%

58.0%

2.78%

2.21%

Price/Cash Flow (Most Recent Quarter)

18.5%

14.1%

17.6%

19.4%

7.68%

14.72%

Price/Cash Flow (TTM)

15.6%

15.4%

14.7%

15.8%

9.59%

16.36%

Price/Sales (Most Recent Quarter P/E)

3.7%

2.6%

3.5%

3.7%

1.17%

10.22%

Price/Sales (TTM)

3.8%

2.8%

3.3%

2.9%

1.31%

1.34%

Price/Book

7.2%

6.5%

4.7%

4.0%

9.65%

0.70%



Definitions:

Trailing Twelve Months – the last 12 months of data. Think of this as a “rolling” metric. Trailing twelve months for October 2015 would be October 2014 to September 2015.

P/E – the price to earnings ratio or a company found by dividing the company’s current share price to its per-share earnings. Can be used for relative valuation purposes. A firm trading at a P/E of 5 appears cheap compared to a firm trading at a P/E of 20. Lower is better.

PEG Ratio – the price to earnings growth ratio, a forward-looking metric, found by dividing the stock price of a company by its earnings growth. Peter Lynch asserts that a company that is fairly priced will equal its growth rate and thus, a fairly valued company will have a PEG equal to 1.

Price / Cash Flow – similar to the price to earnings ratio except price to cash flow removes the effects of depreciation and other non-cash factors. This truly whittles the relative valuation down to the cash and is found by dividing the Share Price by the Cash Flow Per Share.

Price / Sales – a fairly useless metric that doesn’t take into account expenses or debt. It is useful when comparing similar companies. Found by dividing a firm’s current stock price by its revenue per share.

Price / Book – Also known as the price to equity ratio, it is found by dividing the current closing price of the stock by the latest quarter’s book value per share with book value being Total Assets – Intangible Assets and Liabilities. “A lower P/B ratio could mean that the stock is undervalued. However, it could also mean that something is fundamentally wrong with the company.” [i]


So, just looking across this, the only guy that shows some potential value at this point is Campbell's with a Price to Cash Flow ratio that is fairly below the industry average. Of course the company is also exhibiting a high Price to Book value so all in all, these companies appear fairly valued using relative valuation, no value meals here!

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The over-arching vision of Building a Small Business That Warren Buffett Would Loveis to create
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Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Monday, February 13, 2012

Is it on Sale?



McDonald's

Industry Average - Hotels & Restaurants

Coke

Industry Average - Hotels & Restaurants

Campbell's

Industry Average - Food Products

P/E (Trailing Twelve Months)

18.8%

27.4%

18.4%

16.8%

13.14%

10.36

P/E (5-Year Average)

19.5%

28.4%

17.8%

21.1%

16.18%

28.5

PEG Ratio

1.9%

1.7%

2.9%

58.0%

2.78%

2.21%

Price/Cash Flow (Most Recent Quarter)

18.5%

14.1%

17.6%

19.4%

7.68%

14.72%

Price/Cash Flow (TTM)

15.6%

15.4%

14.7%

15.8%

9.59%

16.36%

Price/Sales (Most Recent Quarter P/E)

3.7%

2.6%

3.5%

3.7%

1.17%

10.22%

Price/Sales (TTM)

3.8%

2.8%

3.3%

2.9%

1.31%

1.34%

Price/Book

7.2%

6.5%

4.7%

4.0%

9.65%

0.70%





Building a Small Business That Warren Buffett Would Love,available at Amazon.comorBarnesandNoble.com.
The over-arching vision of Building a Small Business That Warren Buffett Would Loveis to create
One Million Jobs.
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Friday, February 10, 2012

Annuities are Fun ... like Kernel Seasons on Popcorn except Different

Growing Annuity

“A growing annuity is a cash flow that grows at a constant rate for a specified period of time.”

Stuart Gabriel, a second-year MBA student, has just been offered a job at $80,000 a year. He anticipates his salary increasing by 9 percent a year until his retirement in 40 years. Given an interest rate of 20 percent, what is the present value of his lifetime salary?

Clear time value of money memory: 2nd CLR TVM
Compounding should remain at P/Y = 1 (third row second column), ENTER (first row second column), down arrow (first row fourth column), C/Y = 1.

First step: find out I and PMT

I = {(interest rate-growth rate)/(1+growth rate)}*100
= {(.20-.09)/(1+.09)}*100
=10.09

Press STO, 1 to store the number

PMT = Current Annual Salary/ (1+growth rate)
= (80,000/1.09)
=73,394.50

Press STO, 2 to store the number

Second Step: enter the following

N = 40, number of payment/cash flows in the growing annuity.
I = press RCL, 1 to recall the number we saved
PV = Unknown
PMT = RCL, 2 to recall the number
FV = 0
CPT PV = $711,731
Growing Perpetuity

“Assume that you are assessing a stock that paid $2 as dividends last year. Assume that you expect these dividends to grow 2 percent a year in perpetuity, and that your required rate of return for investing in this stock, given its risk, is 8 percent. With these inputs, you can value the stock using a perpetual growth model:

Expected dividends next year / (Required return - Expected growth rate) = $2 (1.02) / (.08 - .02) = $34.00”

“These cash flows are the essential building blocks for virtually every financial asset. Bonds, stocks, or real estate properties can ultimately be broken down into sets of cash flows. If you can discount these cash flows, you can value all of these assets.”

_________________________________________________________________

Building a Small Business That Warren Buffett Would Love,available at Amazon.comorBarnesandNoble.com.
The over-arching vision of Building a Small Business That Warren Buffett Would Loveis to create
One Million Jobs.
Like us on Facebook to find out how you can support this mission!