Thursday, February 16, 2012

McDonald's, Coke and Campbell's Relative Valuation

Relative Valuation Comparing Three Consumer Monopoly Companies




McDonald's

Industry Average - Hotels & Restaurants

Coke

Industry Average - Hotels & Restaurants

Campbell's

Industry Average - Food Products

P/E (Trailing Twelve Months)

18.8%

27.4%

18.4%

16.8%

13.14%

10.36

P/E (5-Year Average)

19.5%

28.4%

17.8%

21.1%

16.18%

28.5

PEG Ratio

1.9%

1.7%

2.9%

58.0%

2.78%

2.21%

Price/Cash Flow (Most Recent Quarter)

18.5%

14.1%

17.6%

19.4%

7.68%

14.72%

Price/Cash Flow (TTM)

15.6%

15.4%

14.7%

15.8%

9.59%

16.36%

Price/Sales (Most Recent Quarter P/E)

3.7%

2.6%

3.5%

3.7%

1.17%

10.22%

Price/Sales (TTM)

3.8%

2.8%

3.3%

2.9%

1.31%

1.34%

Price/Book

7.2%

6.5%

4.7%

4.0%

9.65%

0.70%



Definitions:

Trailing Twelve Months – the last 12 months of data. Think of this as a “rolling” metric. Trailing twelve months for October 2015 would be October 2014 to September 2015.

P/E – the price to earnings ratio or a company found by dividing the company’s current share price to its per-share earnings. Can be used for relative valuation purposes. A firm trading at a P/E of 5 appears cheap compared to a firm trading at a P/E of 20. Lower is better.

PEG Ratio – the price to earnings growth ratio, a forward-looking metric, found by dividing the stock price of a company by its earnings growth. Peter Lynch asserts that a company that is fairly priced will equal its growth rate and thus, a fairly valued company will have a PEG equal to 1.

Price / Cash Flow – similar to the price to earnings ratio except price to cash flow removes the effects of depreciation and other non-cash factors. This truly whittles the relative valuation down to the cash and is found by dividing the Share Price by the Cash Flow Per Share.

Price / Sales – a fairly useless metric that doesn’t take into account expenses or debt. It is useful when comparing similar companies. Found by dividing a firm’s current stock price by its revenue per share.

Price / Book – Also known as the price to equity ratio, it is found by dividing the current closing price of the stock by the latest quarter’s book value per share with book value being Total Assets – Intangible Assets and Liabilities. “A lower P/B ratio could mean that the stock is undervalued. However, it could also mean that something is fundamentally wrong with the company.” [i]


So, just looking across this, the only guy that shows some potential value at this point is Campbell's with a Price to Cash Flow ratio that is fairly below the industry average. Of course the company is also exhibiting a high Price to Book value so all in all, these companies appear fairly valued using relative valuation, no value meals here!

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Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Monday, February 13, 2012

Is it on Sale?



McDonald's

Industry Average - Hotels & Restaurants

Coke

Industry Average - Hotels & Restaurants

Campbell's

Industry Average - Food Products

P/E (Trailing Twelve Months)

18.8%

27.4%

18.4%

16.8%

13.14%

10.36

P/E (5-Year Average)

19.5%

28.4%

17.8%

21.1%

16.18%

28.5

PEG Ratio

1.9%

1.7%

2.9%

58.0%

2.78%

2.21%

Price/Cash Flow (Most Recent Quarter)

18.5%

14.1%

17.6%

19.4%

7.68%

14.72%

Price/Cash Flow (TTM)

15.6%

15.4%

14.7%

15.8%

9.59%

16.36%

Price/Sales (Most Recent Quarter P/E)

3.7%

2.6%

3.5%

3.7%

1.17%

10.22%

Price/Sales (TTM)

3.8%

2.8%

3.3%

2.9%

1.31%

1.34%

Price/Book

7.2%

6.5%

4.7%

4.0%

9.65%

0.70%





Building a Small Business That Warren Buffett Would Love,available at Amazon.comorBarnesandNoble.com.
The over-arching vision of Building a Small Business That Warren Buffett Would Loveis to create
One Million Jobs.
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Friday, February 10, 2012

Annuities are Fun ... like Kernel Seasons on Popcorn except Different

Growing Annuity

“A growing annuity is a cash flow that grows at a constant rate for a specified period of time.”

Stuart Gabriel, a second-year MBA student, has just been offered a job at $80,000 a year. He anticipates his salary increasing by 9 percent a year until his retirement in 40 years. Given an interest rate of 20 percent, what is the present value of his lifetime salary?

Clear time value of money memory: 2nd CLR TVM
Compounding should remain at P/Y = 1 (third row second column), ENTER (first row second column), down arrow (first row fourth column), C/Y = 1.

First step: find out I and PMT

I = {(interest rate-growth rate)/(1+growth rate)}*100
= {(.20-.09)/(1+.09)}*100
=10.09

Press STO, 1 to store the number

PMT = Current Annual Salary/ (1+growth rate)
= (80,000/1.09)
=73,394.50

Press STO, 2 to store the number

Second Step: enter the following

N = 40, number of payment/cash flows in the growing annuity.
I = press RCL, 1 to recall the number we saved
PV = Unknown
PMT = RCL, 2 to recall the number
FV = 0
CPT PV = $711,731
Growing Perpetuity

“Assume that you are assessing a stock that paid $2 as dividends last year. Assume that you expect these dividends to grow 2 percent a year in perpetuity, and that your required rate of return for investing in this stock, given its risk, is 8 percent. With these inputs, you can value the stock using a perpetual growth model:

Expected dividends next year / (Required return - Expected growth rate) = $2 (1.02) / (.08 - .02) = $34.00”

“These cash flows are the essential building blocks for virtually every financial asset. Bonds, stocks, or real estate properties can ultimately be broken down into sets of cash flows. If you can discount these cash flows, you can value all of these assets.”

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Building a Small Business That Warren Buffett Would Love,available at Amazon.comorBarnesandNoble.com.
The over-arching vision of Building a Small Business That Warren Buffett Would Loveis to create
One Million Jobs.
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Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Peter Frampton and Perpetuities - Yay!



An Annuity and Ye Olde BA II Plus Business Calculator

For example’s sake, let’s say you can purchase a coin operated laundry machine business for $80,000 outright or you can make installment payments of 10,000 a year for 10 years. Which is the better deal? If the discount rate is 8%, we would break out our hand BA II Plus business calculator and enter the digits as follows:

P/Y = 1

N = 10

I/Y = 8

PMT = $10,000

CPT PV

The result is $67,101. Thus, it would be wiser to take the installment payment deal and use the rest to stock up the detergent dispensers with Tide.

A Perpetuity Goes on Forever, Just Like the Peter Frampton Song Do You Feel Like We Do

To find the present value of a perpetuity, you simply divide the annual payment by the interest rate. For example, a bond that pays a $50 coupon each year with an interest rate of 10 percent has a present value of $500.

PV = $50 / .10 = $500

Mark A. White provides us with a very interesting example of a perpetuity in his workbook, Financial Analysis With an Electronic Calculator: “Former US President John F. Kennedy’s grave in Arlington Cemetery is marked by an ‘eternal flame,’ which has burned continuosly since his assassination in 1963. Suppose that annual fuel expenses were estimated at $1,200 per year, and the annual interest rate at that time was 5 percent. How much should this portion of the monument have cost at the time of its construction?”[i]

Answer = $24,000

PV = $1,200 / .05

______________________________________________________


Building a Small Business That Warren Buffett Would Love,available at Amazon.comorBarnesandNoble.com.
The over-arching vision of Building a Small Business That Warren Buffett Would Loveis to create
One Million Jobs.
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[i] Financial Analysis With an Electronic Calculator, Mark A. White, Fourth Edition, McGraw Hill, 2000, p30