Saturday, October 1, 2011

The Science of Acceleration

1) Determine that demand exists, both existing and historic (we want to open a Blu Ray Store not a Beta Max Store)
a. Look at This Time Last Year sales, 10 year trend, 5 yr trend - looking for high sku demand.
b. Current demand
1. Internet
2. Retail items with correlation to internet items
3. Amazon/Wal-mart, competitors ... does the customer profile match?
4. What do the customers want - surveys on Facebook, in e-mails ... again, the 5 methods of determining demand ... a small trial run ... do two ... eliminate the loser. Ask a friendly non-competitor.
2) Saturation - if the item is already over critical mass and on the decline ... we do not necessarily want to promote it. Looking for a sweet spot here ... and item at 60 to 80% of its peak demand with ...
3) Acceleration or gamma ... we want an item that is picking up speed heading towards its peak, not away from it. Gamma is a measure of rate change in demand for an item over time, in this case, I imagine over a shorter period of time, at the most months since the e-mails are frequent and short-term.

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