Thursday, May 5, 2011

How Warren Buffett Puts a Future Value on a Stock ... Yo



Using Equity Share Value

MCD

KO

DIS

Average ROE

21.1%

32.2%

9.1%

Average Annual Dividend Yield

3.0%

3.0%

0.9%

True Equity Rate of Growth of Shareholder's Equity

18.1%

29.2%

8.2%

Total Shares (in millions)

1,080

2,295

1,899

Total Equity (in millions)

15,458

31,003

37,519

Per Share Shareholders Equity Value

$ 14.31

$ 13.51

$ 19.76

N

10

10

10

I/Y

18.1%

29.2%

8.2%

PV

14.31

$ 13.51

$ 19.76

CPT FV - Future Per Share Value of Co's Shareholder's Equity

$ 75.82

$ 175.37

$ 43.30

Projected Future EPS

$ 16.03

$ 56.50

$ 3.94

Avg. 10 yr. P/E

20

23

25

Company's per share projected future 2020 trading price

$ 320.64

$ 1,299.60

$ 98.41

PV (company's current price)

$ 75.78

$ 65.22

$ 42.97

FV

320.64

$ 1,299.60

$ 98.41

N

10

10

10

CPT I/Y (This is the company's projected annual compounding rate of return.)

15.5%

34.9%

8.6%

Projected Future Trading Price of the Company's Stock

$ 320.64

$ 1,299.60

$ 98.41

Current Trading Price

$ 75.78

$ 65.22

$ 42.97





Using Historics

MCD

KO

DIS

PV (EPS 2000 or 1999)

$ 1.46

$ 1.33

$ 0.30

FV (EPS 2010 or 2009)

$ 4.58

$ 2.93

$ 2.07

N

10

10

10

CPT I/Y (Per Share Annual Compounding Growth Rate for 2000 to 2010)

12.1%

8.2%

21.3%

PV (EPS 2010)

$ 4.58

$ 2.93

$ 2.07

I/Y

0.1211

0.0822

0.2131

N

10

10

10

CPT FV (Projected EPS for 2020)

$ 14.37

$ 6.46

$ 14.29

Avg. 10 yr. P/E

20

23

25

Company's per share projected future 2020 trading price

$ 287.40

$ 148.58

$ 357.25

PV (company's current price)

$ 75.78

$ 65.22

$ 42.97

FV

287.4

148.58

357.25

N

10

10

10

CPT I/Y This is the company's projected annual compounding rate of return using historics.

14.26%

8.58%

23.59%





MCD

KO

DIS

Projected 2020 Trading Range Using Historics

$ 287.40

$ 148.58

$ 357.25

Projected 2020 Trading Range Using Per Share Equity

$ 320.64

$ 1,299.60

$ 98.41

Average

$ 304.02

$ 724.09

$ 227.83

Projected Rate of Return Using Historics

14.3%

8.6%

23.6%

Projected Rate of Return Using Per Share Equity

15.5%

34.9%

8.6%

Average

14.9%

21.7%

16.1%

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