Friday, November 28, 2008

Financial Independence an Overview


The purpose of Financial Independence is not about money.  It's about having options.
The following is an overview of the process.

First, some pictures.

The Income Statement and the Balance Sheet


And a definition ...

Passive income: persistent cash flow from assets.

Examples:
  • Stock dividend income
  • Rental income
  • Capital Gains from Buffett-style stock investments
  • Interest income from savings
  • Royalty income
  • Covered Calls
1.) The Definition of Financial Independence

An individual reaches  financial independence once their passive income is equal to or greater than their expenses. For example, someone with monthly expenses of $2,000 and $2,000 of monthly passive cash flow is financially independent. This person can sustain their current lifestyle without working.

2.) The Interaction Between the Income Statement and Balance Sheet for the Different Societal Classes

A) For a Broke Person

In this model, income heads out the door before it can be invested.

B) For a Middle Class Person


The liability column is loaded down and feeds the expense row with income draining expenses.  Income heads straight out the door due to liabilities in this example.

C) For the Financially Independent

The asset column feeds the income column with passive cash flow and provides financial independence once cash flow is equal to or greater than expenses.

3.) Q: How Do I Know What My Expenses Are? A: A Monthly Budget

One of the cornerstones of financial independence lies in developing a budget which helps define and manage monthly expenses.

Sample budget:

Income $4,000.00
Extra Income $100.00Gross Income $4,100.00
Fixed Expenses
Electric $100.00
Cable $80.00
Trash Pickup $30.00
Water $18.00
Phone $70.00
Groceries $500.00
Gym $50.00
NetFlix $9.59Total Fixed $857.59
Variable Expenses
My Food $110.00
Gas $120.00
My Misc. $130.00
Entert. $65.00
Dogs $10.00
Misc -
Christmas $500.00
Total Variable $935.00
Total Exp $1,792.59

Net Income $2,307.41

The next step involves paying off any unnecessary debt. You have probably heard the terms "good debt" and "bad debt" before. For our purposes, good debt would be any debt that generates positive cashflow into our income statement. For example, a $100,000 loan on an apartment building that puts $200 a month of cash flow into the income column is considered good debt in our paradigm.
Bad debt is debt that does not deliver cash flow into the income column and typically serves to drain it through expenses.   Examples of this include cars, retail debt, rent-a-furniture and negative cash flowing real estate. Again, this is the picture of the middle class.  

Additionally, Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway weigh-in on the subject of debt via their investment philosophy: Buffett invests in companies that typically have the ability to retire long-term debt in one to three years from earnings.  Thus, on the subject of leverage, it is best to remain conservative with little to no debt; I have 80 billion examples to back up this argument. 

Returning to our picture of Financial Independence, it is best to augment cash flow while diminishing expenses in order to expedite the process.  A person with $1,000 a month in cash flow and $1,500 a month in expenses could simply reduce their expenses by $500 a month and reach financial independence.

Here is the personal financial plan as prescribed by Dave Ramsey that assist in managing and lowering expenses:

1) Save up $1000 in an emergency fund
2) Pay off all debts smallest to largest
3) Maximize an emergency fund at 3 to 6 months of expenses
4) Start investing in retirement plans and mutual funds
5) Pay off the house
6) Advanced investing

The retirement of bad debt frees up much needed income necessary to build the asset column to a critical mass of financial independence.

4.) Buying Assets
I've posted many blogs that go into detail on buying Assets. Check out these subject blogs on this site:
  • Real Estate
  • DIFCOO
  • Dividends
  • Buffett Stock Investing
  • Why You Should Turn Your Hobby Into a Small Business
Some great books that serve as the corner stones for the framework of financial independence:
  • Mary Buffett, Buffettology
  • Robert Kiyosaki's Rich Dad Poor Dad
  • Adam Brownlee, Building a Small Business That Warren Buffett Would Love
  • Thomas Stanley The Millionaire Next Door
  • Dave Ramsey, Total Money Makeover or Financial Peace
5.) Financial Independence

Again, an individual with passive income equal to or greater than expenses, has reached financial independence.
















Sunday, November 23, 2008

Dividends Part Three (Stein and DeMuth)

Add ImageThe Stein Demuth Dividend Stock Short List

1)      At least match the yield of DVY, iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index

2)      Diversify across different sectors.

3)      Perform fundamental analysis.

4)      Invest in companies that pay dividends regularly and consistently never cutting or omitting them.  You want steady payers.

How to make individual stock selections

1)      Morningstar.com – lookup the trailing 12 month dividend yield of iShares Dow Jones, DVY.

2)      This gives you the yield to beat – enter symbols.

3)      Under Morningstar snapshot, check management grades for profitability, financial health, ignore growth.

4)      Go to Charts and Returns page – Dividend history for past few years – has it benn cut for any reason?  If so, cross it off the list.

5)      Diversify if utitilites, e.g. Houston versus a Seattle utility. Larger market caps are more stable.

6)      Consumer business and ind stocks are generally going to have lower yields than banks and utilities.  If higher, achieved in one industry – tobacco.

 

DVY – let DVY do the heavy lifting.

·         It’s an ETF which means low expense

·         list of top dividend paying stocks

·         excludes REITs (15%)

·         positive 5 year dividend growth rate.

 

 

First dividends are “double-taxed.”  Taxed once as income at corporate level and they’re taxed again as ordinary income when they’re distributed to shareholders.

  • The Dow Jones Select Dividend Index

 

Ticker

Yield

Expense

iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index

DVY

3.3%

.40%


  • List of the top dividend-paying stocks from the Dow Jones Total Stock Market Index.
  • REITs are excluded so taxable at the 15% rate.
  • Make sure each of the stocks has a 5 year positive dividend growth rate, so companies whose stock prices are plummeting (creating an artificially high temporary dividend yield) aren’t included.  Weak players on the list are quietly replaced if their dividend yields fall and someone else’s becomes more attractive.
  • 50 companies.

Open Versus Closed-End Mutual Funds

  • Open End: management sells and redeems shares of the fund themselves at the day’s closing net-asset value.  Investors buy and sell their shares in the fund directly from the management company.  (Vanguard, fidelity) which in turn buys and sells the underlying securities that the fund holds to keep pace with this supply and demand.

-          This equals most, standard mutual funds.

  • A closed end fund issues shares only once at the initial public offering.

After that, their shares trade like ordinary stocks on the stock exchange where they’re listed. This protects the fund from massive inflows and outflows of dollars, which can confuse performance by flooding management with money or by compelling sales and allows management to concentrate on the primary job of managing the portfolio.

Since no new monies are added to the fund from new investors, the fund mgt. company may open several near-identical closed end funds to capture more assets, since (as with open end funds) fess are based on total assets under mgt.

This means that within the closed-end fund sponsors company, many funds tend to be run by the same mgrs with the same investment objectives, holding the same securities and performing similarly.

Closed end funds usually trade on the open market at a premium or a discount to the actual net asset value of the securities they hold.

Usually sinks below the NAV a few months after the initial offering.

ETFs

Technically, all closed-end funds are exchange traded funds, since they’re traded on stock exchanges, but ETFs usually refer to a subset of closed-end funds that are really like a hybrid of open and closed end funds.

Instead of issuing a fixed # of shares (like CEF) the mgt. co’s of these ETFs create and redeem shares to keep pace with mkt demand (like OEF).

Because of this flexibility, the price of ETFs usually tracks that of the underlying securities quite closely, which means they sell at a tiny premium or discount amount.

Mgt. expenses for these funds are also generally much lower than for funds that are actively managed.  ETFs were designed to be used as building blocks, allowing investors to create portfolios with precise and stable characteristics.

This winning combination of low expenses and preicise asset – class targeting means that you should take a special interest in ETFs whenever they meet your needs.

Closed end funds (and ETFs) trade like stocks, which means you have to pay commissions when you buy and sell them.  This also means that you can buy or sell them any time the market is open, while with open-end funds you have to wait until the days closing.  Closed funds normally pay out their dividends and gains rather than reinvesting them = good for current income.

Difficult to get info on, but go to www.etfconnection.com and cefa.com. 

Leveraged Closed End Dividend Funds

All closed end, preferred stock funds are leveraged.

The lower the s/t rates, the better the performance = attached to rate.

Payout will vary.

Examples:

 

Yield

Expense

DNP

9.8%

1.9

HPS

9.3%

1.1

PSY

8.9%

1.1

Invest in stocks that issue dividends as well as ordinary income interest = tax consequences.

But if the leveraged fund pays all its dividends from trusts rather than true preferred stock, the after-tax advantage shrinks to less than .5 a % for those in 35% bracket.

List of closed-end leveraged funds that invest in preferred as well as ordinary dividend stocks.  Their yield is taxable entirely at the lower dividend rate.

 

Leveraged Tax-Friendly Dividend Funds

Fund

Yield

Expense

John Hancock Patriot DIV

7.8%

1.9

John Hancock Patriot DIV2

7.1%

1.9

John Hancock Patriot SELECT

7.7%

1.7

John Hancock Patriot GLOBAL

7.3%

1.9

John Hancock Patriot PREFERED

8.2%

1.9

 

Day to day can be expected to fluctuate more so than an unleveraged – but can still get a steady dividend in light of this just attached to s/t rates.

Should the yield curve invert and the fund managers fail to get out of the way you could receive less interest from the fund than simply from owning an unleveraged bundle of preferred stocks.

In that event, the discount at which the fund sells would increase sharply and you would risk a loss if you sold.

REITS 

Real Estate Investment Trusts

An equity REIT owns physical property – skyscrapers, malls, hospitals, hotels, shopping centers, nursing homes and the like.

It also manages them – leases space, screens tenants, collects the rent, renovates, paints, patches carpets and fixes the water heater and air conditioning – doing whatever it takes to keep the properties operational.

Manages a portfolio of real estate, selling existing properties and buying new ones as it deems advantageous.

Pros:  Diversification in Real Estate

1)      A REIT is a collection of properties that are often located in diverse geographic regions by buying several REITs you can cover the entire states = you can own a stake in a nationally diversified portfolio of commercial real estate properties with as little as $100.

2)      Since they trade on stock exchanges, shares can be bought and sold within ten seconds any time the market is open,whereas an individual rental property might take months to unload.

Commission to sell = $10 versus a single million dollar rental at $60k. 

3)      REITs are leveraged at 50% and you can equalize with a rental leverage at 80% by buying REITs on margin or in a leveraged closed-end mutual fund.

4)      The yields on REITs are fairly comparable to those from owning an apartment house.

5)      They have a transparency and accountability previously unknown in real estate.

By law, a REIT must distribute 90% of its annual taxable income as dividends to its shareholders.

Depreciation used for tax purposes is returned through dividends – usually about 25 – 30% of the dividend yield from equity REITs constitutes such a return of capital and is ultimately taxed at the lower long-term capital gains rate.

This makes for a better after-tax yield on REITs.

Traditional, Real Property Real Estate Advantages:

1)      Leverage

2)      Tax Advantages through depreciation

3)      Control to improve value of property

4)      Not correlated to the stock market 

Big, important point here:  Although a REIT can give you national or global real estate diversification, and let you avoid tenant and property headaches with an investment that can be leveraged with a tax advantage, you are still correlated to the stock market.  Not a strong correlation to small stocks, but a correlation nonetheless. Thus, with a stock market crash while real estate holds, you would still lose value in a REIT versus if you were in real property real estate.  In my opinion, this defeats the purpose of true asset diversification – investing across asset classes; paper, real estate and business.

So, the question becomes, or at least, one of the questions becomes, is it still delivering yield?  Perhaps you are not as concerned with underlying value if the check is still arriving in the mail. Still, you do not have asset diversification.

How to Buy a REIT

You can invest in a REIT by purchasing a low-expense-index mutual fund that simply tracks the entire sector.  One is enough since they all sample form the same master list of 200 or so REITs.

Vanguards and Fidelity’s are open end mutual funds.

The others are ETFs which means you will pay a commission for each investment making it harder to dollar cost average.

Fund

Ticker

Index

Yield

Expense

Vanguard REIT Index

VGSIX

Morgan Stanley REIT Index

4.8%

.24%

Cohen & Steers Realty Majors

ICF

Cohen & Steers Realty Major Index

4.5%

.35%

Dow Jones Realty Index Fund

IYR

Dow Jones Realty Index

4.8%

.60%

Wilshire REIT

RWR

Wilshire REIT Index

4.2%

.26%

 

How REITs are Divided – Equity REITs

Segment

Market Share

Industrial/Office

31%

Shopping Centers

13%

Fashion Malls

13%

Retail Freestanding

2%

Apartments

18%

Manufactured Housing

1%

Diversified

6%

Hotel/Resort

4%

Health Care

4%

Self-Storage

4%

Specialty

4% 

An index fund will typically own a “chocolate box” of assorted REITs weighted to approximate each segments market share.

Hotel/Resort REITs do bad in a down economy vs. aptmts. And commercial which = 1 year to multi-year leases.

Shopping centers do better, dry cleaners, drug stores, a bank.

Ones to look at:

1)      Shopping Centers

2)      Manufactured Housing

3)      Health care

4)      Self-storage facilities

Ticker

Yield

Ticker

Yield

UMH

6.5%

O

5.4%

PSA

3.6%

NNN

7.1%

KIM

4.4%

HCN

6.7%

REG

4.5%

UHT

6.6%

NXL

6.6%

HR

6.5%

 

ASN

5.4%

DRE

5.6%

CUZ

4.3%

BRE

5.1%

LRY

6.1%

LXP

6.4%

HPT

6.8%

CLI

5.7%

 

 

BDN

6.2%

PEI

5.6%

 

 


The Recommended Stein/Demuth REIT - 9/2004

Company

Ticker

Yield

Sector

United Mobile Homes

UMH

6.5%

Manufactured Housing

Kimco Realty

KIM

4.4%

Shopping Centers

Realty Income

O

5.4%

Freestanding

Healthcare Realty Trust

HR

6.5%

Health Care

Arch Stone-Smith Trust

ASN

5.4%

Apt.

Merch-Cals

CLI

5.7%

Office

Hospitality Properties

HPT

6.8%

Hotel

Cousins Properties

CUZ

4.3%

Diversified

  

Leveraged REIT Mutual Funds = a fatter yield and it addresses the leverage issue of being able to leverage real estate and not stocks.  Here, you can.

Fund Ticker

Yield

Expense

RIF

6.8%

1.4

RRE

6.6%

1.0

RLF

7.2%

1.0

RPF

6.7%

1.1

RQI

6.8%

1.1

NRL

6.3%

1.8

NRI

6.4%

1.4

JRS

6.8%

2.1

RIT

7.0%

1.1


  • Any of the above would suffice as far as covering the gamut of REIT sectors.
  • Some are closed-end funds.
  • Yields will fall as interest rates go up.
  • These guys are riskier. 

Royalty trust – a financial wrapper for holding a group of assets and their operating companies 

They own hard assets such as oil reserves, timber, natural gas or minerals.  The cash flows generated by the sale of the trusts’ assets are passed directly through to the shareholder.

·         RTs tend to be concerned with energy exploration thus less susceptible to interest-rate risk as inflation represents a large component of that danger and the underlying oil and gas resources the trusts own act as a hedge.

Cons

1)      The income will fluctuate with commodity prices up to about 15% yield.

2)      The underlying assets are depleting – thus a return of principle.

3)      Currency risk – Canadian dollar.

Pro – you receive a tax break

Ticker

Business

Yield

BPT

Oil and Gas

8.0

DOM

Gas

8.2

GNI

Iron

6.4

MSB

Iron

7.0

PBT

Oil and Gas

7.1

 

A Good Income Allocation 

Asset Class

Percent Allocation

REITs (stocks)

20%

Inflation Indexed Bonds

30%

Dividend Stocks

20%

Bonds

30% 

Conservative Income Portfolio 

Percent

Asset

Ticker

Yield

Expense

REITs 20%

Vanguard REIT Index

VGSIX

4.8%

.24%

Stocks 20%

iShares Dow Jones Selected Dividend

DVY

3.3%

.40%

TIPs 30%

Vanguard Inflation Prof. Securities

VIPSX

3.5%

.18%

Bonds 30%

Vanguard ST Bond Index

VBISX

2.9%

.20%


The Aggressive Income Portfolio

Percent

Asset

Ticker

Yield

Expense

REITs 20%

Cohen & Steers Quality Income

RQI

7.7%

1.1%

Stocks 20%

John Hancock Patriot Premium Dividend

PDF

6.9%

1.9%

TIPs 30%

iShares TIPs

TIP

4.9%

.2%

Bonds 30%

Pimco Corp. Income Fund

PCN

8.5%

1.2%